Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team involves a fusion of strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. While selecting top draft picks can bolster a team’s chances, consistent production from later picks often proves crucial. With the 2023-24 NBA season approaching, examining the past performances and future projections of key players can offer valuable insights for fantasy basketball enthusiasts.
Joel Embiid: A Double-Edged Sword
Joel Embiid remains one of the most tantalizing players in fantasy basketball. Projected to average over 60 fantasy points per game, Embiid's impact is undeniable. Last season, he averaged 61 fantasy points per game, underscoring his status as a top-tier performer. However, Embiid's track record of health concerns cannot be overlooked. He has never played more than 68 games in a season and participated in only 39 games last year. This dichotomy presents a gamble: his potential for high rewards comes with a significant risk of injury-related absences.
Nikola Jokic: The Model of Consistency
Nikola Jokic, by contrast, epitomizes reliability. Jokic played 79 games last season and has never participated in fewer than 69 games in any season of his career. This durability, combined with his consistent production, makes him a bedrock for any fantasy team. With Jokic, managers can count on a steady stream of points, reducing the element of risk associated with other high-profile players.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis: The Aging Stars
LeBron James and Anthony Davis present intriguing cases as well. LeBron, now turning 40, played 71 games last season but has averaged only 52 games over the previous three seasons. Davis also improved his availability, playing 76 games last year, but has averaged just 44 games per season over the last three years. Both players have demonstrated capacity for high-level performance, yet their recent injury histories suggest caution for fantasy managers.
Ja Morant: Talent Amid Turmoil
Ja Morant's situation is more complex. Despite his undeniable talent, reflected in his averages of 26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG) over the past three seasons, Morant missed 73 games last season due to suspension and injury. Now 25, Morant's potential is significant, but his off-court issues and injury history present substantial risks for fantasy team owners.
Kyrie Irving: High-Risk, High-Reward
Kyrie Irving is another high-risk, high-reward option. His impressive statistical averages of 26.7 PPG, 49.3% field goal percentage (FG%), 39.9% three-point percentage (3P%), and 91.2% free-throw percentage (FT%) over the last five seasons highlight his offensive prowess. Yet, he has only averaged 44.2 games per season during this period. Last season, Irving ranked 22nd in fantasy points per game and 47th in total fantasy points, illustrating his potential value when available.
Zion Williamson: The Future Hope
Zion Williamson is another enigmatic figure in the fantasy basketball landscape. Averaging 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons showcases his impactful play when healthy. However, his inability to stay on the court consistently—having played just 90 of a possible 236 regular season games in that span—raises concerns. Interestingly, Williamson did play a career-high 70 games last season, including a stellar 10-game stretch averaging 27.1 PPG late in the season, suggesting he could be turning a corner.
Kevin Durant: The Veteran All-Star
Durant enters his 18th NBA season at 36 years old. Last season, he played 75 games, a testament to his resilience and enduring talent. As one of the league's elder statesmen, Durant continues to be a significant fantasy asset. His ability to contribute across multiple statistical categories makes him a valuable component of any fantasy roster.
Kawhi Leonard: Uncertain Reliability
Kawhi Leonard's case is emblematic of the blend of talent and uncertainty that challenges fantasy managers. Leonard played 68 games last season and finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league. However, his tendency to miss games due to injury, including 12 of the Clippers' last 14 games last season with knee issues, raises legitimate concerns about his reliability.
In the unpredictable world of fantasy basketball, assembling a winning roster demands balancing these varied elements of potential, performance, and risk. Whether banking on the consistency of Jokic or the standout potential of Embiid and Williamson, informed decisions about player selections are crucial. As the new season looms, fantasy managers will need to weigh these factors carefully to construct their championship-contending teams.