Major League Baseball (MLB) Commissioner Rob Manfred has recently expressed thoughtful concern over the evolving role and dwindling game presence of starting pitchers in today's game. As teams increasingly rely on their bullpen, the innings-per-start metric for pitchers has seen a considerable decline—from an average of 6.3 innings in 1984 to just 5.2 innings in 2024. This undeniably marks a significant shift in the strategy employed by baseball franchises.
With the game's changing dynamics, Manfred acknowledges the complexity of addressing this issue. While some propose enforcing minimum inning requirements for starting pitchers as a solution, Manfred remains skeptical, suggesting that such mandates might prove insufficient. “Just too blunt an instrument to fix this problem,” he notes, emphasizing the need for more thoughtful solutions.
A Changing Game: Bullpen Dependency
The reliance on bullpen arms has reshaped the sport's strategic landscape. The modern focus on leveraging situational matchups and maximizing velocity and spin rates can lead to more frequent pitching changes. However, this shift is not without its drawbacks. Physicians have studied the impact extensively and have correlated the increased focus on velocity and spin rate with a higher incidence of pitching-related injuries. "I do see both problems as pretty serious," Manfred said, underscoring the dual challenge of balancing strategic deployment with player longevity.
Incentive-based Solutions
Given the risks associated with a top-down innings mandate, Manfred advocates for alternative measures that incentivize teams to extend starters' appearances within games. He suggests taking a closer look at adjusting transaction rules as a pathway to encouraging longer outings from starters. By doing so, the league might effectively encourage clubs to nurture pitchers capable of extended performances on the mound. “I think it has to be a series of rules that create incentive for the clubs to develop pitchers of a certain type,” he asserts.
An example cited by Manfred involves how teams manage player transactions: "One of the things that happens today, guy pitches three days in a row, he gets outrighted, they bring somebody else in to give him some rest, as opposed to him staying on the roster the whole time." Such transactions, while strategically advantageous, could deter teams from developing reliable long-inning starters.
The Broader Impact of Starting Pitchers
Beyond their intrinsic role in a team’s success, starting pitchers are pivotal to marketing and broadcasting narratives. A dominant starter not only enhances the team's chances of winning but also captures the public's imagination, contributing to the storied tradition of baseball's iconic duels on the mound. To preserve this narrative, there is potential merit in innovative concepts like the "Double Hook," which links a team's designated hitter slot to the presence of their starting pitcher. This approach could reinforce the starter's centrality by incentivizing longer performances.
Looking Ahead to Structural Change
Adjustments in roster regulations and transaction policies present opportunities for meaningful reform, potentially reshaping team strategies and the importance of starters. At the core of these discussions lies the impending expiration of MLB's current Collective Bargaining Agreement with the MLB Players Association in 2026. This timeline presents a crucial window for both parties to explore and implement leads that may protect pitcher health while preserving the traditional role of the starting pitcher.
As baseball continues to evolve, the challenge remains to strike an intricate balance between modern technological advances and the age-old charm that starting pitchers bring to the game. Through strategic adjustments, MLB aims to craft a future where pitchers not only excel on the mound but also stand the test of time both physically and in public prominence.