At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced another disappointing evening as they squandered a three-run lead, ultimately falling 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. In a pivotal moment, Griffin Jax gave up a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth, sealing the Twins' fate.
With 18 losses in their last 27 games, the Twins have seen their postseason hopes begin to wane. Once holding a 95.4% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, they now find their odds reduced to 76.4%. As a result, their grip on the third AL wild-card spot has weakened, with their lead trimmed down to a mere 1 1/2 games.
As frustration mounts, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli emphasized the need for more consistent offensive output. "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," Baldelli stated. Echoing this sentiment, pitcher Pablo López remarked, "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
During this rough 27-game stretch, the Twins have struggled mightily at the plate, failing to score more than three runs in 12 of those contests. As a team, they're batting a mere .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. When the bases are empty, they drop to .272, ranking as the fourth worst in Major League Baseball in this scenario. Key players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown flashes, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month, yet the team as a whole hasn't been able to string together consistent performances.
Pitching has also been a concern for the Twins. Their bullpen, once a source of stability with a 3.84 ERA and a tenth-best win probability added (plus-3.41) through the first 123 games, has faltered recently. Over the past 27 games, the bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, contributing to a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added. "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," Jax confessed.
The rest of the starting rotation hasn't fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start during this slide. The relentless grind of playing 17 games in the last 18 days has undoubtedly taken its toll on the pitchers. In five of their 18 recent losses, the Twins had the lead in the seventh inning or later but couldn't hold on. They were tied in the seventh inning or later on two additional occasions, underscoring the bullpen's struggles.
In a bid to bolster their pitching staff, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin has a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season. Derek Falvey, the Twins' President of Baseball Operations, sees potential in Irvin's versatility. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," Falvey explained.
The road ahead remains challenging for the Twins, with the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners only two games behind in the standings. Nevertheless, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams. The Tigers, in particular, have been surging, going 23-10 in their last 33 games, applying significant pressure as the end of the regular season approaches.
Amidst the adversity, Baldelli is focused on finding a way to rally his team. "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," he reflected. With Max Kepler expected to return, there's hope that his presence will inject some much-needed spark into the Twins' lineup.
The Twins' playoff aspirations are still within reach, but they must quickly address their recent shortcomings. As the margin of error continues to narrow, every game, every inning, and every pitch will be crucial in determining their postseason fate.