The Diamondbacks are set to square off against the Cubs at Wrigley Field this afternoon, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET. The matchup offers an interesting pitching duel between Justin Steele of the Cubs and Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks, each bringing their distinct strengths and recent performances to the mound.
Pitching Matchup: Steele vs. Nelson
Justin Steele has made 14 starts this season, establishing himself as a reliable figure in the Cubs' rotation. With a 2-3 record and a commendable 2.71 ERA, Steele has turned in eight quality starts, offering consistent stability. His home ERA stands at 3.16, slightly higher than his road ERA of 2.96. Steele's most recent outing saw him pitch seven scoreless innings, showcasing his ability to deliver under pressure.
On the other side, Ryne Nelson brings a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA into the game for the Diamondbacks. Despite a higher ERA, Nelson has shown resilience, maintaining a WHIP of 1.42 and a batting average against of .296. Notably, he has made six straight starts without surrendering more than three earned runs, indicating a level of consistency that could trouble the Cubs' lineup. Nelson's ability to withstand offensive pressure will be crucial for the Diamondbacks, who are slight money line favorites at -106.
Diamondbacks' Recent Form and Offensive Stats
The Diamondbacks have a 49-48 record this season, positioning them second in the NL West, seven games behind the Dodgers. Recent form suggests a strong performance on the road, with the team boasting a 4-1 record in their last five away games and an identical run line record in the same span. The Diamondbacks are also averaging five runs per game, the second-best mark in MLB, showing their offensive prowess.
Christian Walker and Ketel Marte are key figures in the Diamondbacks' offensive lineup, with 22 and 19 homers respectively. Despite a recent 8-7 loss to the Blue Jays where they led by seven runs, the Diamondbacks have bounced back by winning two straight road games. Their overall run line record stands at 49-48, with their games averaging 9.8 runs this season.
Cubs' Current Standing and Key Performances
The Cubs, on the other hand, currently hold a 47-51 record, standing fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers. However, recent form suggests an upward trajectory, with the team going 7-3 in their last ten games. At home, they have a strong 4-1 record in their last five games. The Cubs are not to be underestimated, especially considering their 9-5 record as home underdogs this year.
Jameson Taillon’s recent contribution of 5 2/3 innings allowing three earned runs in an 8-3 victory over the Cardinals reflects the potential within the Cubs' pitching rotation. Offensive consistency will be key, with the Cubs averaging 4.2 runs per game and an overall batting average of .235. Nico Hoerner's impressive .378 over his last nine games and Christopher Morel's three homers in his last eight games highlight the offensive spark that could trouble the Diamondbacks.
Game Outlook and Betting Insights
This game is expected to be tightly contested, with an over/under line set at 7.5 runs. Both teams are currently riding three-game over streaks, indicating a likelihood of a high-scoring affair. Notably, 84.5% of Diamondbacks games and 67.3% of Cubs games have surpassed the 7.5 run line this season. When the over/under line is set at 7.5, the Diamondbacks hold a 6-4 record, while the Cubs are 12-10.
Projections suggest that Justin Steele is expected to record six strikeouts, while Ryne Nelson is anticipated to have four. Steele is also predicted to concede fewer runs than Nelson, an aspect the Diamondbacks will need to counter through their offensive capabilities.
In a game laden with potential twists and significant implications for both teams, the Diamondbacks are predicted to secure a narrow 5-4 victory. With Steele and Nelson headlining the mound and key players from both lineups expected to deliver, fans at Wrigley Field are in for an enthralling contest.